Using planning and forecasting to respond to future health care workforce (HCWF) needs is central to a health system’s ability to meet the challenges of population ageing and workforce shortages. This is one of a set of three policy briefs that reflect the evidence collected for the HEROES project. These briefs cover:

• how forecasting and planning can support innovative care models;
• data and tools for forecasting and planning; and
• making forecasting and planning sustainable through institutionalization.

• Effective planning links the care that is needed and the (workforce) capability to deliver it. Policy-makers may plan with a normative future in mind but the range of health needs, the way they change with time and the constraints in place also require a dynamic approach.
• Forecasting can only match supply to demand if it goes beyond counting professionals and incorporates demographic, epidemiological and utilization data, as well as information on care organization, skill mix, productivity and working time.
• A mix of forecasting methods improves accuracy and policy relevance. Combining supply- and demand-based models with routine scenario analysis helps test alternative futures, anticipate skill-mix and capacity needs, and design better recruitment, retention and training strategies.
• Embedding health and care workforce (HCWF) forecasting and planning in institutional structures is a vital part of strong governance and encourages sustainability and impact.
• Regular forecasting across the health, education and labour sectors is key but forecasting cycles are only sustainable if backed by long-term, secure funding and by coordination across sectors.
• Policy-makers need better data and planning methods to be able to meet future workforce needs. Countries depend on timely, comparable HCWF data to align supply with evolving demand and to support integrated, team-based models of care.
• Countries can make forecasts more reliable and useful by closing key data gaps and ensuring data integration. There is an urgent need to improve the measurement of full-time equivalents, inflow, outflow and migration; to include nursing and allied professions in the data; and to harmonize definitions.
• Enriching planning with qualitative insights supports better planning and more adaptive care models. Qualitative data can reveal integrated insights on contextual factors affecting HCWF forecasting and planning. The HEROES Advanced Minimum Data Set includes a quantitative dataset that focuses on the main drivers of change and a qualitative set for care organization, HCWF health indicators and the labour market.
• Interoperable health professional registers with a clear legal basis underpin workforce intelligence. Effective registers that integrate data from education, licensing and employment systems are essential if countries are to forecast better at the national and regional levels. Implementation requires policy support; enabling legislation; appropriate technical and IT expertise; stakeholder participation and collaboration.