Overview

Using planning and forecasting to respond to future health care workforce (HCWF) needs is central to a health system’s ability to meet the challenges of population ageing and workforce shortages. This is one of a set of three policy briefs that reflect the evidence collected for the HEROES project. These briefs cover:

• how forecasting and planning can support innovative care models;
• data and tools for forecasting and planning; and
• making forecasting and planning sustainable through institutionalization.

• Forecasting and planning are only truly effective in shaping the health and care workforce where they become institutionalized i.e. embedded in formal, durable governance structures, supported by legal frameworks and sustainable funding.
• Institutionalization works best when a named organization or agency is given statutory responsibility for data collection, forecasting and planning, whether as part of a centralized (national health service), decentralized/Nordic, or Social Health Insurance/hybrid model.
• Legal and regulatory frameworks are the foundation for making workforce planning central to health system governance. Defining institutional mandates and regular forecasting cycles in law ensures data can inform practice and policy. Aligning national policy with EU policy initiatives also supports the institutionalization of forecasting and planning.
• Understanding and adapting to the national context will be instrumental in the success of any institution responsible for health and care workforce planning. Countries can combine national agencies and independent bodies to address geographical or demographic diversity or use independent bodies to bridge gaps (between government, professionals, insurers or trainers). The important thing is that the approach reflects the health and education system contexts.
• Forecasting and planning are most effective when they are enabled to respond to changing conditions with agility and speed. They require:
  • the right tools to capture and analyse data;
  • the right people with the capacity, knowledge and skills to translate evidence into practical, implementable plans;
  • the right systems to routinely and proactively link their analysis to policy action in real time including to the following:
    • education systems, and particularly to curricula and admission quotas;
    • professional roles, including those beyond medicine and nursing; and
    • workforce regulations.
• Building human (forecasting and planning) capacity is one of the crucial things that governments can do to promote good practice. This includes providing planners and analysts with the skills to collect data, analyse it and develop planning options as well as to interpret and communicate what these mean for policy.
• Strong governance is the glue that ensures planning translates into real-world policy impact, this means:
  • clear mandates, transparent accountability and sustainable funding to enable implementation, including across and beyond electoral cycles;
  • multi-level, participatory governance that connects national, regional and local actors;
  • collaboration between the health, education and labour sectors;
  • aligning resources, education and governance mechanisms to accommodate new technologies, support shared long-term health goals and foster resilience; and
  • linking HCWF governance to broader mechanisms to strengthen cross-sector coordination and policy uptake.