Context
Italy’s demographic issue is critical economically, politically and socially. Italy is the oldest country in Europe (the average age is 48.4 years) with some of the lowest birth rates (7.0 births per 1000 people) and fertility rates (1.2 children per woman) and a high age dependency rate (57.4%). As of 2023, birth rates have declined by 34.2% since 2008, with 379 000 births and 661 000 deaths. Economic and social factors (for example, costs incurred for child support or fear of losing a job) hinder couples from having more children, if any. Italy ranks third-last in Europe in terms of its fertility rate: 1.2 children per woman in 2023, above Spain (1.16) and Malta (1.01), with France having the highest at 1.65 in 2023, albeit down from 1.79 in 2022. As a reminder, a value of about 2.1 is needed to maintain a stable population. While fertility is higher among immigrants, migration flows have dramatically decreased in the last decade.
However, a large survey conducted by ISTAT (more than 100 000 individuals) on Italian residents and representative of both Italians and foreigners provides some encouraging elements. Sixty-nine percent of adolescents aged 11–19 years declared that they would like to have children in the future, and this percentage is higher in the 17–19 age group. Among girls, the proportion of those who do not want children is 10.3%. However, among females and males who state that they intend to have children, 82.9% and 76.9%, respectively, would like to have at least two children. Overall, 21% state that they prefer to remain child-free. No major differences are observed between foreigners and Italians, except for a high percentage of Chinese girls who do not desire children. Thirty-four percent of adolescents see themselves living abroad in the future, reflecting ongoing high emigration rates among young Italians, which is a factor in Italy’s declining fertility rate.
Content of policy measures and implementation
Compared to the rest of Europe, Italy’s measures to address low birth rates focus more on supporting large families rather than encouraging new ones or higher fertility outside marriage. The Budget Law 2024, approved by the Council of Ministers on 16 October 2023, allocates EUR 1 billion for family-friendly and birth-related measures. These include:
- Exemption from social security contributions (up to a maximum of EUR 3000 per year) for mothers who are permanent employees (not including domestic work relationships) with three or more children; for 2024 only, the measure is extended to mothers with at least two children.
- Parental leave: for 2024, the second month of parental leave is increased to 80% of pay, available until the child is six years old. In comparison, other European countries, such as Spain, Sweden and Finland, offer more robust parental leave policies and some of them provides stronger incentive to father’s leave.
- The kindergarten bonus is increased to EUR 3600 for families with an ISEE (Equivalent Economic Situation Indicator) of up to EUR 40 000 and a child under the age of 10.