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03 June 2024 | Policy Analysis
Italian policies aim to address low birth rates -
03 June 2024 | Country Update
Recent Italian policies target the issue of low birth rates -
04 October 2023 | Policy Analysis
New welfare policy response to address low fertility levels
1.1. Geography and sociodemography
Italy is situated in southern Europe, with a population of about 60 million in 2021 (ISTAT, 2021a), making it the fourth most populous country in Europe (Eurostat, 2022a). The country covers 302 073 km2 and extends from the north, where it borders France, Switzerland, Austria and Slovenia, to the south, where it includes the Mediterranean islands of Sardinia and Sicily and a cluster of other smaller islands.
The country is made up of 20 regions. The region of Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol is composed of the Autonomous Province of Trento and the Autonomous Province of Bolzano. Five out of the 20 regions (Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Sardinia, Sicily, Trentino-Alto Adige/Südtirol, with its two autonomous provinces, and Valle d’Aosta) are special status regions with autonomous statutes. They are granted home rule in relation to legislation, administration and finance in order to account for cultural differences and protect linguistic minorities. In addition, enclaves within mainland Italy include the countries of San Marino and the Holy See, a papal state enclosed by Rome, Italy’s capital (Fig1.1). About 77% of the country is mountainous or hilly and 23% is forested. Population density on average is 196 inhabitants per km2 and most of the population clusters around metropolitan areas and along the coasts (rural population accounts for only 17% of the total population) (Il Sole 24 Ore – Info Data, 2020).
Fig1.1
Italian is the major language throughout the country, although there are small areas in which German (in Alto Adige/Südtirol), French (in Valle d’Aosta) and Slovene (in Trieste and the area around Gorizia) are spoken. The most widespread religion is Roman Catholicism but the Constitution guarantees freedom of worship to other religions, which are primarily Protestantism, Islam and Judaism.
The structure of the population has been changing since the 1990s (see Table1.1), with low fertility rates and a rapidly ageing population. The continuously low total fertility rate over the last 35 years is a major matter of concern in Italy. In 2020, the fertility level was 1.3 live births per woman (Table1.1), well below the 2.1 replacement level. The reasons behind this process are complex and could be explained by the delay in transition to adulthood, the difficulties experienced by Italian women in combining work and raising children (Rosina & Caltabiano, 2012), the lack of effective family policies and the postponement of getting married to later ages, in a country where having children is tightly linked to marriage (Kertzer et al., 2009). The population growth rate is negative (−0.15% in 2020), one of the lowest in the EU, with immigration no longer being able to compensate for the negative natural trend. At the beginning of 2020, foreign residents accounted for 8.4% of the Italian population (Tuttitalia, 2021). The number of legally documented immigrants is still on a growing trend and varies across the country with higher numbers in northern and central regions and smaller numbers in the south. The largest foreign communities, for both genders, are represented by Romanians, Albanians and Ukrainians.
Table1.1
Context
Italy’s demographic issue is critical economically, politically and socially. Italy is the oldest country in Europe (the average age is 48.4 years) with some of the lowest birth rates (7.0 births per 1000 people) and fertility rates (1.2 children per woman) and a high age dependency rate (57.4%). As of 2023, birth rates have declined by 34.2% since 2008, with 379 000 births and 661 000 deaths. Economic and social factors (for example, costs incurred for child support or fear of losing a job) hinder couples from having more children, if any. Italy ranks third-last in Europe in terms of its fertility rate: 1.2 children per woman in 2023, above Spain (1.16) and Malta (1.01), with France having the highest at 1.65 in 2023, albeit down from 1.79 in 2022. As a reminder, a value of about 2.1 is needed to maintain a stable population. While fertility is higher among immigrants, migration flows have dramatically decreased in the last decade.
However, a large survey conducted by ISTAT (more than 100 000 individuals) on Italian residents and representative of both Italians and foreigners provides some encouraging elements. Sixty-nine percent of adolescents aged 11–19 years declared that they would like to have children in the future, and this percentage is higher in the 17–19 age group. Among girls, the proportion of those who do not want children is 10.3%. However, among females and males who state that they intend to have children, 82.9% and 76.9%, respectively, would like to have at least two children. Overall, 21% state that they prefer to remain child-free. No major differences are observed between foreigners and Italians, except for a high percentage of Chinese girls who do not desire children. Thirty-four percent of adolescents see themselves living abroad in the future, reflecting ongoing high emigration rates among young Italians, which is a factor in Italy’s declining fertility rate.
Content of policy measures and implementation
Compared to the rest of Europe, Italy’s measures to address low birth rates focus more on supporting large families rather than encouraging new ones or higher fertility outside marriage. The Budget Law 2024, approved by the Council of Ministers on 16 October 2023, allocates EUR 1 billion for family-friendly and birth-related measures. These include:
- Exemption from social security contributions (up to a maximum of EUR 3000 per year) for mothers who are permanent employees (not including domestic work relationships) with three or more children; for 2024 only, the measure is extended to mothers with at least two children.
- Parental leave: for 2024, the second month of parental leave is increased to 80% of pay, available until the child is six years old. In comparison, other European countries, such as Spain, Sweden and Finland, offer more robust parental leave policies and some of them provides stronger incentive to father’s leave.
- The kindergarten bonus is increased to EUR 3600 for families with an ISEE (Equivalent Economic Situation Indicator) of up to EUR 40 000 and a child under the age of 10.
References
https://www.corriere.it/digital-edition/CS_ND/2024/05/13/17131477.shtml?refresh_ce
https://www.istat.it/it/archivio/297374
https://www.istat.it/it/files/2024/03/Indicatori_demografici.pdf
https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/istat-calano-ancora-nati-2023-italia-AF26KBFD?refresh_ce
https://www.mef.gov.it/focus/Le-principali-misure-della-legge-di-bilancio-2024
https://alleyoop.ilsole24ore.com/2023/02/17/italiani-figli-costi
https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/nel-paese-104-milioni-madri-giacimento-competenze-ignorate-AFVKF7iD
Italy continues to grapple with low birth rates, low fertility rates and a high age dependency ratio. Existing policies to address these issues include the 2021 Single and Universal Allowance for dependent children, which offers progressive benefits based on income and child’s age, and the 2022 compulsory 10-day paternity leave to promote gender equality in childcare.
Recently, the Budget Law 2024 allocates 1 billion EUR for family support, including:
- For 2024–2026, mothers with three or more children (two or more in 2024) receive an exemption from social security contributions (up to EUR 3000 per year);
- Parental leave: for 2024, the second month of parental leave is increased to 80% of pay, available until the child is six years old;
- Kindergarden bonus: increased to EUR 3600 for families with an ISEE (Equivalent Economic Situation Indicator) up to EUR 40 000 and a child under 10.
For more information, please see Policy Analyses from 4 October 2023 and 3 June 2024.
References
https://www.corriere.it/digital-edition/CS_ND/2024/05/13/17131477.shtml
https://www.istat.it/it/files/2024/03/Indicatori_demografici.pdf
https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/istat-calano-ancora-nati-2023-italia-AF26KBFD?refresh_ce
https://www.mef.gov.it/focus/Le-principali-misure-della-legge-di-bilancio-2024
https://alleyoop.ilsole24ore.com/2023/02/17/italiani-figli-costi
https://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/nel-paese-104-milioni-madri-giacimento-competenze-ignorate-AFVKF7iD
Context and impetus for the policy measure
Italy has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world: in 2021 it was 1.3 births per woman (World Bank). This is mainly due to the difficulties in reconciling work and family life. Indeed, female employment rate decreases as the number of children increases. The fertility rate of immigrants is higher (+ 0.6) but also has been decreasing over time.
Several short-term policies (e.g., babysitting bonus, third child bonus, etc.) have been implemented since 2010 to support motherhood and parenting in Italy, but all showed a low efficacy as births continued to drop over time.
Existing social welfare policies to help families
In 2021 (D. Lgs. 230/2021), Italy introduced the Single and Universal Allowance for dependent children (“Assegno Unico Universale per figli a carico”), which simplified the framework of welfare benefits to support families. The allowance is universal and progressive: it can be obtained for each child irrespective of parental employment status or family income, but the amount varies according to income level and the child’s age (from €50 to €175 per month for children under 18, and from €25 to €85 for children aged 18–21). The amount is also higher for disabled children and single mothers.
In 2022 (D. Lgs. 105/2022), a compulsory paternity leave of 10 days was introduced with the aim of pursuing a more equitable distribution of childcare responsibilities between men and women and fostering gender equality in family and work environments. In detail, fathers who are private and public employees can benefit from such leave, even in the case of adoption, and during the maternity leave of the working mother. Further changes were introduced in relation to non-compulsory parental leave (with a remuneration equal to 30% of the salary): it can now be used until the child reaches the age of 12 (instead of 6) and for a maximum period of 9 months (instead of 6).
Content of the policy measure and implementation
Italy’s Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) has allocated €4.6 billion to create 264 470 new preschool places (for children aged 0–3 years), corresponding to a 76% increase of current places, by the end of 2025. Indeed, only one-third (33.4%) of children aged below 3 attend preschool in Italy, compared to 36.2% across the EU, and this share in directly correlated with family income and parental employment status. Therefore, this policy aims to facilitate the attendance of children from low-income families and promote female participation in the labour market.